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Leeds vs Nott'm Forest

Sat 10 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 31 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Leeds win: 35.3%

Draw: 26.1%

Nott'm Forest win: 38.6%

Predicted: Nott'm Forest

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 66.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 64.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.49

More corners: Nott'm Forest (47.1% home / 52.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Nott'm Forest

Yes

Probability Nott'm Forest wins or draws: 75.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (66.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Nott'm Forest win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.